the Recent Situation of Global Cotton Market
http://www.texleader.com.cn/ar
2016-03-25 11:01:13
Global cotton prices continue to fall the next month.Last month, the New York futures contract price in term of validity of a contract consecutive decline, from a month ago to 59 cents per pound to 56 cents/pound, the lowest since 2009.A index also fell by about 3 cents per pound, has fallen to 64-65 cents/lb.
Supply, demand and trade
According to the international prices, China's CC index from 85 cents/pound fell to 82 cents/lb.According to the domestic price, down from 300 yuan/ton to 000 yuan/ton.According to both price calculation of China CC index dropped to the lowest since 2009.China's ZCE futures prices continued to give the signal of future cotton prices, the most actively traded contract prices in September has fallen to nearly 10 300 yuan/ton (72 cents/lb).
Shankar - 6 index slow down of India, according to the international price from 63 cents/pound fell to 62 cents/lb.According to the domestic price from 33 400 INR/candy has dropped to 32900 INR/candy.
Pakistan cotton index also fell slightly, according to the international price from 62 cents/pound fell to 61 cents/lb.According to the domestic price from 5 400 PKR/maund fell slightly to 5 250 PKR/maund.
Supply, demand and trade
Since September last year, the supply and demand of each month to the United States department of agriculture report is expected by global cotton production and consumption.This month's report is not exceptional also, global cotton production was again cut 1.2 million package (bag fell to 101.4 million from 100.2 million package), global cotton consumption was cut in 400000 package (bag fell to 109.6 million from 109.2 million packages).According to the current forecast, output and consumption are reduced to the lowest since 2003/04.
Production is expected to drop can be attributed to India (cut 1 million packages, package from 1 million to 26.8 million) and Pakistan (cut 200000 packages, package from 200000 to 7 million packages) production expected decline.Consumption forecast by obvious countries only Pakistan (cut 200000 packages, package from 200000 to 9.6 million), and a few other countries of consumption was slightly lower, including: Morocco, Thailand, Iran, South Africa and tajikistan.Trading data adjusted obviously countries including: Morocco's imports are cut 100000 packages, India's exports were cut 200000 bales.
In its annual outlook meeting held at the end of February, the United States department of agriculture released the forecast for next year's incomplete.A complete set of complete forecast data will be released in May.The usda forecast, according to data released a few weeks ago in 2016/17 global cotton production will increase by 5% (from 100.2 million 105.5 million a package bag).
Global cotton production expected growth came mainly from the good of the environment for the growth of cotton.This year, Pakistan and India suffered pests and extreme weather.Next year, the weather and cotton output of these countries expected to return to normal, is expected to increase its production forecast.Central and southern Texas and spring rain delayed the cotton plant.To the United States currently rainfall would normally be expected to make 2016/17 American cotton planting area and yield forecast was 10%.
The global demand for cotton (increased by 1%, from 109.2 million 110.5 million a package bag) and volume (35 million package remain unchanged) is expected to be similar this year.Although the annual difference between supply and demand may be narrowing (2016/17 of the supply and demand is expected to be 5 million packages, 2015/16 of the difference between supply and demand for the 9 million package), but the next year's expected demand will exceed production.This means that the world ending stocks will fall again.The global final inventory, however, are still far above the historical average (99.1 million), it will have downward pressure on global prices.
Price outlook
Front of several year, the Chinese government's policy is the core factors affecting global cotton prices.In the past few months, China is likely to far below the current spot price of index (CC) storage of rumors that lead to global cotton prices fell.Current CC index is close to 82 cents/pound, China CNCE (national cotton trading market) platform contract price (July and August delivery contract transaction price is lower than the 70 cents/lb), China ZCE (zhengzhou) futures contracts trading (September delivery contract transaction prices close to 72 cents/lb) suggests that in the next few months China cotton prices could fall by about 15%.
But, at present the Chinese state has not announced the next round of store any details.If the Chinese government announced the policy finally confirmed by CNCE ZCE and conveyed the expectations about China's cotton prices will fall, so China spinning mill in global competitiveness will be increased, Chinese factories cotton consumption will also increase.Prediction to the United States department of agriculture, China will be a lot of at a low price to store inventory, cotton consumption will increase to 1 million next year China factory package (package increased to 32 million from 33 million packages).
It will be long term positive influence on global cotton consumption, because it means that China's cotton price will more competitive than polyester prices.In the short term, however, because of China's yarn imports contraction and this will affect the global cotton consumption.China yarn imports fell 10% year-on-year in December, fell 27% year-on-year in January.This will affect the outside China cotton consumption and downward pressure on global prices.
Production is expected to drop can be attributed to India (cut 1 million packages, package from 1 million to 26.8 million) and Pakistan (cut 200000 packages, package from 200000 to 7 million packages) production expected decline.Consumption forecast by obvious countries only Pakistan (cut 200000 packages, package from 200000 to 9.6 million), and a few other countries of consumption was slightly lower, including: Morocco, Thailand, Iran, South Africa and tajikistan.Trading data adjusted obviously countries including: Morocco's imports are cut 100000 packages, India's exports were cut 200000 bales.
In its annual outlook meeting held at the end of February, the United States department of agriculture released the forecast for next year's incomplete.A complete set of complete forecast data will be released in May.The usda forecast, according to data released a few weeks ago in 2016/17 global cotton production will increase by 5% (from 100.2 million 105.5 million a package bag).
Global cotton production expected growth came mainly from the good of the environment for the growth of cotton.This year, Pakistan and India suffered pests and extreme weather.Next year, the weather and cotton output of these countries expected to return to normal, is expected to increase its production forecast.Central and southern Texas and spring rain delayed the cotton plant.To the United States currently rainfall would normally be expected to make 2016/17 American cotton planting area and yield forecast was 10%.
The global demand for cotton (increased by 1%, from 109.2 million 110.5 million a package bag) and volume (35 million package remain unchanged) is expected to be similar this year.Although the annual difference between supply and demand may be narrowing (2016/17 of the supply and demand is expected to be 5 million packages, 2015/16 of the difference between supply and demand for the 9 million package), but the next year's expected demand will exceed production.This means that the world ending stocks will fall again.The global final inventory, however, are still far above the historical average (99.1 million), it will have downward pressure on global prices.
Price outlook
Front of several year, the Chinese government's policy is the core factors affecting global cotton prices.In the past few months, China is likely to far below the current spot price of index (CC) storage of rumors that lead to global cotton prices fell.Current CC index is close to 82 cents/pound, China CNCE (national cotton trading market) platform contract price (July and August delivery contract transaction price is lower than the 70 cents/lb), China ZCE (zhengzhou) futures contracts trading (September delivery contract transaction prices close to 72 cents/lb) suggests that in the next few months China cotton prices could fall by about 15%.
But, at present the Chinese state has not announced the next round of store any details.If the Chinese government announced the policy finally confirmed by CNCE ZCE and conveyed the expectations about China's cotton prices will fall, so China spinning mill in global competitiveness will be increased, Chinese factories cotton consumption will also increase.Prediction to the United States department of agriculture, China will be a lot of at a low price to store inventory, cotton consumption will increase to 1 million next year China factory package (package increased to 32 million from 33 million packages).
It will be long term positive influence on global cotton consumption, because it means that China's cotton price will more competitive than polyester prices.In the short term, however, because of China's yarn imports contraction and this will affect the global cotton consumption.China yarn imports fell 10% year-on-year in December, fell 27% year-on-year in January.This will affect the outside China cotton consumption and downward pressure on global prices.
