Gao Yong: China's textile industry market analysis and prospects
http://www.31wfb.com
2016-05-16 12:02:47
Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen: Good morning!
Very pleased to attend the China Cotton Industry Development Summit Forum, I was the first time to participate in meeting the cotton industry, I would like on the basis of a re-emphasis on guest speakers from the point of view of textile raw materials to give you some additional. In the "five" period, it should be said that the textile industry in the world economic slowdown, China's economy has entered a new normal situation, the pace of development significantly decreased, but China and other domestic industries compared reasonably well.
In 2015 the main business income above scale textile industry topped seven trillion, whether it is the main business income or profit growth in the industrial sector in the field are also more leading. The end of 2015, the State Council was briefed two textile and light industry, after hearing the report of the State Council, several leaders were speaking, the current Chinese light industry and textile industry has become a pillar industry of economic growth, so the meeting of the State Council leaders should be made to carry out especially "three" action in the field of consumer goods in the industrial sector, namely by variety, to mention quality, brand. After nearly six months of efforts, several textile industry associations and consumer goods industry jointly developed industrial "three" strategic plan of action in the morning of the 11th executive meeting of the State Council formally adopted. After the meeting, the Ministry organized a lot of national media to the Ministry of Industry and textile, light industry interviews were conducted, in answer to a reporter asked, "Why in the entire industry is not good, the textile industry to maintain an appropriate pace of development in the industrial sector is relatively lead? ", I preach, in fact, we in the" second five "Now that caught two adjustments, which is the supply-side structural reforms later the central government coincide. "Twelve Five" period, we first caught the adjustment of industrial structure, I think the adjustments associated with the cotton industry. "Twelve Five" period, our fiber consumption average annual growth of more than 5%, but in the past two or three years the average annual growth in the amount of fiber in the world is about 3.5%. The last two years, especially in 2014, 2015, our annual fiber consumption also dropped to 3.5%, which has been basically with the world growth rate. But the world's total fiber consumption situation in 2014 was more than 9,000 tons worldwide in 2015 is estimated at about 95 million tons, China China Bureau of Statistics fiber processing volume is 53 million tons. Of course, the world of 95 million tons and 53 million tons in China is not exactly the same caliber statistics, the statistical world does not include a variety of hemp fibers and polypropylene, China's statistical contained two parts. So we always talk about China's fiber consumption and processing more than half of the world.
In total more than 9000 ten thousand tons this fiber, the proportion of cotton fiber in 2015 and 2011 compared to the declining in 2015, the current world cotton consumption accounts for more than a quarter-point overall fiber consumption, lower than 30%, but China's consumption of cotton fiber consumption in China as a whole, the proportion lower, only about more than 13%, meaning that the entire fiber consumption in China, the proportion of cotton is only half of the world.
In the past, we have more than five percent average annual growth, almost all rely on chemical fiber, and from the beginning of 2012, textile and garment exports from our country is involved in the first decline in cotton fiber, cotton-related products of negative growth began. So I think, in the cotton industry comrades here we should note that, in the past five to 10 years, especially in the past four years there, the development of our textile industry rely on chemical fiber growth. In contrast, we actually reduced the proportion of the consumption of cotton, but the total is not much we reduce the consumption of cotton fiber. Maximum amount of consumption of cotton in 2015, when compared with the 6 million tonnes, a reduction of about 400 million tons, consumption of which about 200 million tons of cotton yarn to make up for by imports, compared with the peak, we actually cotton consumption is only reduced by 100 million tons, and I believe this will make it up than 100 million tons. From the end of last year to the last few months time, when domestic and foreign cotton spreads of less than 1,500 yuan, low crude cotton yarn imports began to decline, the domestic cotton processing volume started to grow, and domestic cotton yarn exports began to recover. This is in the "second five" specific circumstances of our entire textile industry a raw material.
Here then speak during the "Thirteen Five" our vision. "Twelve Five" Last year, our fiber processing capacity is 53 million tons, in the development of the textile industry, "Thirteen Five" development plan, we expect that by 2020 China's fiber processing capacity will reach 60 million tons per year there are over 1 million tonnes less than 2 million tons of incremental increase of about 3.5%, and the average increase substantially over the past two to three decades the world was flat. However, to increase the 7 million tons relying heavily on increased industrial fibers that, during the "Thirteen Five", the entire textile industry, fiber processing volume growth in some of the basic industrial textiles. Around 2015 textile industry accounts for a quarter of the amount of fiber processing, we intend in the next five years inside, this proportion rose to one-third to one-third increase if the growth, then the fiber processing basically the amount of industrial textiles will be "eaten."
We all know that in addition to textiles handful of specific areas of cotton fiber, basically all other chemical fibers. However, we can expect in the next five years, domestic consumption of cotton can be restored to 7.5 million tons, 1 million tons five years growth, expectations are not high, accurately speaking, it should be a relatively low expectations. However, this is based on the country's current raw material inventory, at home and abroad over the years and the international spread of cotton cultivation and cotton production, we made a prediction and expectations. In comprehensive view, the cotton fiber is irreplaceable, so in the future, in clothing, home textiles, we still hope that the cotton fiber can play a role of the main force.
Opening ceremony, Luo Lin, director and president of Dai mentioned the development of the cotton industry from the past "re-production" to "quality" changes, I very much agree. "Twelve Five" period, China's cotton acreage dropped from more than 7,000 acres of more than 5,000 acres, the area decreased by nearly 2,000 acres, but production is only reduced by 100 million tons, indicating that China's cotton yield growth in the past five years this is a great achievement. However, cotton production growth, the past two years, reducing the quality of cotton has become almost an industry conference called on various topics and discussions. I personally think that the decline in cotton quality look from different angles, first, in the past few years, we focus on improving production while there are indeed some quality indicators fell, thicker cotton fiber, 28 mm more than the number of to less. But from our perspective of the spinning industry, fiber spinning industry requirements are also getting higher and higher.
Now in order to increase the added value of the yarn, we must use high-quality cotton, the high count, fine count direction, almost all of the low count yarn imports. At the same time, now spinning mills in constant transformation automated, intelligent, less labor, so the cotton fibers are increasingly high requirements. For the cotton industry made it clear that the alternative development, the Summit, to shift from heavy quality on quantity, I think it is very important to complete this transition for our spinning industry should be a good news. At the same time, I noticed that most of them are here today cotton circulation industry, and I hope that our cotton industry in the process of transformation, distribution companies should change, it is possible for the distribution industry in the cotton business services, to be more accurate of I think this is the only way. Because as intelligent, increasingly high degree of automation, our cotton spinning enterprises employing less and less, and even purchasing links, so if our circulation of our cotton business services capable of orientation, accurate, or even both the front with cotton able to do so, I think we certainly wish for cotton spinning enterprises.
thank you all!
Very pleased to attend the China Cotton Industry Development Summit Forum, I was the first time to participate in meeting the cotton industry, I would like on the basis of a re-emphasis on guest speakers from the point of view of textile raw materials to give you some additional. In the "five" period, it should be said that the textile industry in the world economic slowdown, China's economy has entered a new normal situation, the pace of development significantly decreased, but China and other domestic industries compared reasonably well.
In 2015 the main business income above scale textile industry topped seven trillion, whether it is the main business income or profit growth in the industrial sector in the field are also more leading. The end of 2015, the State Council was briefed two textile and light industry, after hearing the report of the State Council, several leaders were speaking, the current Chinese light industry and textile industry has become a pillar industry of economic growth, so the meeting of the State Council leaders should be made to carry out especially "three" action in the field of consumer goods in the industrial sector, namely by variety, to mention quality, brand. After nearly six months of efforts, several textile industry associations and consumer goods industry jointly developed industrial "three" strategic plan of action in the morning of the 11th executive meeting of the State Council formally adopted. After the meeting, the Ministry organized a lot of national media to the Ministry of Industry and textile, light industry interviews were conducted, in answer to a reporter asked, "Why in the entire industry is not good, the textile industry to maintain an appropriate pace of development in the industrial sector is relatively lead? ", I preach, in fact, we in the" second five "Now that caught two adjustments, which is the supply-side structural reforms later the central government coincide. "Twelve Five" period, we first caught the adjustment of industrial structure, I think the adjustments associated with the cotton industry. "Twelve Five" period, our fiber consumption average annual growth of more than 5%, but in the past two or three years the average annual growth in the amount of fiber in the world is about 3.5%. The last two years, especially in 2014, 2015, our annual fiber consumption also dropped to 3.5%, which has been basically with the world growth rate. But the world's total fiber consumption situation in 2014 was more than 9,000 tons worldwide in 2015 is estimated at about 95 million tons, China China Bureau of Statistics fiber processing volume is 53 million tons. Of course, the world of 95 million tons and 53 million tons in China is not exactly the same caliber statistics, the statistical world does not include a variety of hemp fibers and polypropylene, China's statistical contained two parts. So we always talk about China's fiber consumption and processing more than half of the world.
In total more than 9000 ten thousand tons this fiber, the proportion of cotton fiber in 2015 and 2011 compared to the declining in 2015, the current world cotton consumption accounts for more than a quarter-point overall fiber consumption, lower than 30%, but China's consumption of cotton fiber consumption in China as a whole, the proportion lower, only about more than 13%, meaning that the entire fiber consumption in China, the proportion of cotton is only half of the world.
In the past, we have more than five percent average annual growth, almost all rely on chemical fiber, and from the beginning of 2012, textile and garment exports from our country is involved in the first decline in cotton fiber, cotton-related products of negative growth began. So I think, in the cotton industry comrades here we should note that, in the past five to 10 years, especially in the past four years there, the development of our textile industry rely on chemical fiber growth. In contrast, we actually reduced the proportion of the consumption of cotton, but the total is not much we reduce the consumption of cotton fiber. Maximum amount of consumption of cotton in 2015, when compared with the 6 million tonnes, a reduction of about 400 million tons, consumption of which about 200 million tons of cotton yarn to make up for by imports, compared with the peak, we actually cotton consumption is only reduced by 100 million tons, and I believe this will make it up than 100 million tons. From the end of last year to the last few months time, when domestic and foreign cotton spreads of less than 1,500 yuan, low crude cotton yarn imports began to decline, the domestic cotton processing volume started to grow, and domestic cotton yarn exports began to recover. This is in the "second five" specific circumstances of our entire textile industry a raw material.
Here then speak during the "Thirteen Five" our vision. "Twelve Five" Last year, our fiber processing capacity is 53 million tons, in the development of the textile industry, "Thirteen Five" development plan, we expect that by 2020 China's fiber processing capacity will reach 60 million tons per year there are over 1 million tonnes less than 2 million tons of incremental increase of about 3.5%, and the average increase substantially over the past two to three decades the world was flat. However, to increase the 7 million tons relying heavily on increased industrial fibers that, during the "Thirteen Five", the entire textile industry, fiber processing volume growth in some of the basic industrial textiles. Around 2015 textile industry accounts for a quarter of the amount of fiber processing, we intend in the next five years inside, this proportion rose to one-third to one-third increase if the growth, then the fiber processing basically the amount of industrial textiles will be "eaten."
We all know that in addition to textiles handful of specific areas of cotton fiber, basically all other chemical fibers. However, we can expect in the next five years, domestic consumption of cotton can be restored to 7.5 million tons, 1 million tons five years growth, expectations are not high, accurately speaking, it should be a relatively low expectations. However, this is based on the country's current raw material inventory, at home and abroad over the years and the international spread of cotton cultivation and cotton production, we made a prediction and expectations. In comprehensive view, the cotton fiber is irreplaceable, so in the future, in clothing, home textiles, we still hope that the cotton fiber can play a role of the main force.
Opening ceremony, Luo Lin, director and president of Dai mentioned the development of the cotton industry from the past "re-production" to "quality" changes, I very much agree. "Twelve Five" period, China's cotton acreage dropped from more than 7,000 acres of more than 5,000 acres, the area decreased by nearly 2,000 acres, but production is only reduced by 100 million tons, indicating that China's cotton yield growth in the past five years this is a great achievement. However, cotton production growth, the past two years, reducing the quality of cotton has become almost an industry conference called on various topics and discussions. I personally think that the decline in cotton quality look from different angles, first, in the past few years, we focus on improving production while there are indeed some quality indicators fell, thicker cotton fiber, 28 mm more than the number of to less. But from our perspective of the spinning industry, fiber spinning industry requirements are also getting higher and higher.
Now in order to increase the added value of the yarn, we must use high-quality cotton, the high count, fine count direction, almost all of the low count yarn imports. At the same time, now spinning mills in constant transformation automated, intelligent, less labor, so the cotton fibers are increasingly high requirements. For the cotton industry made it clear that the alternative development, the Summit, to shift from heavy quality on quantity, I think it is very important to complete this transition for our spinning industry should be a good news. At the same time, I noticed that most of them are here today cotton circulation industry, and I hope that our cotton industry in the process of transformation, distribution companies should change, it is possible for the distribution industry in the cotton business services, to be more accurate of I think this is the only way. Because as intelligent, increasingly high degree of automation, our cotton spinning enterprises employing less and less, and even purchasing links, so if our circulation of our cotton business services capable of orientation, accurate, or even both the front with cotton able to do so, I think we certainly wish for cotton spinning enterprises.
thank you all!
